Building an evidence-base for deforestation-free landscapes: supporting equitable outcomes in and beyond commodity supply-chains (BEDROCK)
Our food systems are major drivers of global change and are in urgent need of a sustainability transition. Recent years have seen a groundswell of commitments from companies, financial institutions, and governments to make supply-chains for key commodities, such as palm oil, soybeans, and beef, more sustainable, including by eliminating their link to tropical deforestation. Yet, delivery on these pledges has been extremely poor to date: unsustainable practices persist, and deforestation rates remain stubbornly high. As tropical deforestation constitutes one of the largest drivers of climate change, biodiversity loss, and the degradation of ecosystem services vital to the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people, achieving deforestation-free agri-food systems is crucial for meeting global sustainability goals.
This project aims to build and apply an evaluation framework that can provide a more systems-level understanding of the effectiveness of ongoing supply-chain interventions for halting tropical deforestation. What we term supply-chain policies include private sector pledges and commitments, as well as mandatory demand-side human rights and environmental due diligence policies in the EU and individual countries. We will identify those responses that are likely to be more effective by addressing two inter-linked objectives: (i) what theories of change, data and methods are needed to create an evaluation framework that can provide a more system-level understanding of the impact of supply-chain interventions, (ii) which are the “best-bet” policy portfolios that are most synergistic in their ability to drive down deforestation while also minimizing the risk of undesirable or unintended consequences.
To deliver upon these objectives, we will develop a conceptual and analytical framework for assessing supply-chain policy responses to deforestation and apply this framework to evaluate policy developments in key commodity-deforestation frontiers. This framework builds on the recognition that sustainable land-use governance must acknowledge multiple perspectives and trade-offs, account for context, and address spillovers and equity concerns.
The project consists of four interlocking work packages (WPs) that have been designed to closely integrate stakeholder understanding of the assumptions behind supply-chain interventions, the data and analytical approaches available for assessing effectiveness, and the contextual realities facing some of the most important commodity supply chains linked to deforestation: soy, beef, cocoa and palm oil.
WP1 will iteratively elicit and develop Theories of Change (ToCs) for policy responses, drawing upon stakeholders’ assumptions—implicit or tacit—that underpin specific interventions, as well as relevant theories and empirical evidence. The focus of WP1 is motivated by the fact that ToC are very seldom explicit in policy discussions (or even in research) leading to over-simplifications of causal relationships with the potential to seriously undermine policy effectiveness while raising unrealistic expectations.
WP2 will assess and develop a toolkit of methods and metrics for quantitatively assessing policy impacts, across domains (environmental, economic, and social) and is motivated by the fact that current efforts to evaluate supply-chain interventions are all-too-frequently stymied by deep-seated confusion regarding what data and metrics are available and appropriate for the task in hand.
WP3 will apply the draft evaluation framework developed in WP1-2 in three case studies of commodity-driven deforestation landscapes in Indonesia, Cameroon, and Brazil—together providing a rich portfolio of supply-chain policies designed to reduce deforestation in production landscapes.
Finally, WP4 will synthesize the knowledge produced in WP1-3, consolidating and revising a comprehensive evaluation framework for measuring the success (or failure) of supply-chain policies, and providing guidance on which policies are more likely to be most effective in particular settings.
The framework will draw upon recent advances in satellite monitoring, supply-chain traceability and transparency, and policy evaluation, and will be deeply rooted in a highly participatory process of co-development with key stakeholders in both producer and consumer markets. The findings from in-depth case work in tropical landscapes, and the ground-truthing and iterative sense-making with key stakeholders of the ToCs, analytical tools, and overarching assessment framework will allow us to provide a set of “best-bet” policy portfolios—policies that are synergistic in their ability to simultaneously drive down deforestation and support local livelihoods, while also minimizing the risk of unintended consequences.
The societal impact of this project, and its ability to eventually deliver tangible impacts in the fight against tropical deforestation, rests fundamentally on its transdisciplinary nature. The research consortium brings together experienced researchers with a strong track-record across land-use science, economics, political, natural and sustainability science, as well as the recruitment of three postdoctoral researchers that will bring additional competencies and disciplinary perspectives. The highly integrative structure of the project ensures that the different disciplinary contributions will combine to jointly deliver on the project’s objectives.
Importantly, BEDROCK has been designed to allow maximum co-development by stakeholders to ensure the relevance and uptake of policy insights generated. This includes the elicitation of the assumptions that lie behind demand-side policies, the co-development and practical testing of our evaluation framework, and drawing of wider lessons to guide ongoing policy efforts in the deforestation space. The broad engagement of producer country actors will ensure a diversity in perspectives and geographical representation.
The engagement work builds on already existing collaborations with the partner organizations in the forest frontier landscapes in Indonesia (Aurgia), Cameroon (SAILD), and Brazil (Imaflora, FAS), as well as on an extensive network the partners have with private and public sector decision-makers working on deforestation-free supply-chains, not the least in leading donor countries (including Norway, Germany, UK), many of which are included in the Project Advisory Committee (which has confirmed participation of thirteen senior decision makers from public and private sector). Close interaction with partners, stakeholders and advisers will help ensure that the project provides evidence-based and practically grounded measures that can be actively taken up through established policy programs – including the implementation and review mechanisms of the due diligence legislation currently being negotiated in the European Union.
BEDROCK 